31 December 2012

Berbuatlah untuk bumimu

Bumi ini rusak? Setujukah Anda jika saya berkata seperti itu? Silakan Anda beropini, tapi menurut pendapat saya, bumi ini sudah sekarat. Apa saja ciri rusaknya bumi? Siapa penyebab kerusakan itu? Mungkin akan terlintas pertanyaan-pertanyaan semacam itu.

Dalam Wikipedia dinyatakan bahwa pemanasan global atau global warming adalah adanya proses peningkatan suhu rata-rata atmosfer, laut, dan daratan Bumi.

Suhu rata-rata global pada permukaan Bumi telah meningkat 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) selama seratus tahun terakhir. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) menyimpulkan bahwa, "sebagian besar peningkatan suhu rata-rata global sejak pertengahan abad ke-20 kemungkinan besar disebabkan oleh meningkatnya konsentrasi gas-gas rumah kaca akibat aktivitas manusia". Kesimpulan dasar ini telah dikemukakan oleh setidaknya 30 badan ilmiah dan akademik, termasuk semua akademi sains nasional dari negara-negara G8. Akan tetapi, masih terdapat beberapa ilmuwan yang tidak setuju dengan beberapa kesimpulan yang dikemukakan IPCC tersebut.

Penyebab pemanasan global:
Efek rumah kaca
Efek umpan balik
Variasi Matahari

Dampak pemanasan global:
Iklim Mulai Tidak Stabil
Peningkatan permukaan laut
Suhu global cenderung meningkat
Gangguan ekologis
Dampak sosial dan politik

Kerusakan ekosistem bumi oleh tangan manusia yang meningkat dalam 50 tahun terakhir sesuai dengan firman Allah SWT dalam Al Qur'an surat Ar Ruum (30) ayat : 41
"Telah nampak kerusakan di darat dan di laut disebabkan karena perbuatan tangan manusia, supaya Allah merasakan kepada mereka sebahagian dari (akibat) perbuatan mereka, agar mereka kembali (ke jalan yang benar)."

Sekalipun sebagian besar pemerintahan negara-negara di dunia telah menandatangani dan meratifikasi Protokol Kyoto, yang mengarah pada pengurangan emisi gas-gas rumah kaca. Namun pemanasan global terus berlangsung.

Peduli pada lingkungan sebenarnya bukan hanya kepentingan segelintir orang. Siapa pun Anda, dalam strata ekonomi apa pun Anda, di lingkungan sosial seperti apa pun Anda, sesungguhnya Anda punya kewajiban untuk peduli pada lingkungan.

Prasangka Baik



Anda sedang menangisi hidup yang sulit atau selalu sial? Segeralah hapus air mata dan buka mata dengan prasangka baik dalam hati.

Tulislah satu keberuntungan yang terjadi hari ini. Butakan panca indera Anda pada hal-hal buruk. Dari setengah keberuntungan hari ini, Anda tak akan menduga setengah kebahagiaan dunia selanjutnya akan menjadi milik Anda.
Tidak perlu mencuri, berkhianat, berbohong, dan memperdaya orang lain untuk meraih sukses.

New Year's Eve

2013 is coming soon.
Many hope for the upcoming year.
Be better and be wiser.

May Allah bless me more..

12 June 2012

Data Cleaning

Clean your data
Screening process
 • Detect errors
    ~ Missing data
    ~ Outliers
• Make sure data meets assumptions for analysis
    ~ Normality  

Two Types of Screening
1. Preliminary data screening
    ~ Screen one variable at a time on the entire data set before any analysis
    ~ Today’s focus
2. In conjunction with statistical analysis
    ~ Dependent on analysis being performed  

Steps
1. Check for missing data
2. Check for normality
3. Remove outliers
4. Check for normality again
5. Transform data  

Keep in mind:
• Do this with each dependent variable before analyzing data
• Keep transformations consistent across all dependent variables
• Although transformed data looks pretty, it can be difficult to interpret
• Run your analysis with transformed data and without the transformation and compare the results

Great resource: Mickey, R. M., Dunn, O. J., and Clark V. A. (2004). Applied statistics: analysis of variance and regression, 3rd Edition. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Chapter 1: Data Screening

07 January 2011

Mengapa Harga Cabe Tinggi?

Sebagai pecinta cabe dan makanan pedas, saya penasaran ama harga cabe yang melambung tinggi. Bisa jadi ini karena The "Invisible Hand".. Siapa ya The "Invisible Hand" ini?

Kalo kata huppi.com begini nih:
The key to conservative arguments on the free market is a concept called the "invisible hand." This is one of the most popular terms in conservative literature, coined by Adam Smith (a Scottish professor greatly beloved by his students and peers for his delightful absent-mindedness) in his 1776 classic, The Wealth of Nations:

"It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own self-interest... [Every individual] intends only his own security, only his own gain. And he is in this led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention. By pursuing his own interest, he frequently promotes that of society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it."

But there are many misconceptions about the invisible hand, starting with the belief that Smith himself was a absolute believer in it. In fact, he was not. Smith actually viewed merchants with great suspicion:

"People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices."

Another misconception is that the invisible hand is a form of individualism. It would be hard to call the actions of a baker who spends all day baking bread for strangers "individualism." A more accurate word is exchange, and it represents a balance between individualism and collectivism, even if that exchange is ultimately self-interested. True individualism is taking from the group without giving anything back; true collectivism is giving to the group without getting anything back. Seen in this light, the exchange inherent in the invisible hand should deserve the full and enthusiastic endorsement of liberals.

Unfortunately, today's conservatives have corrupted the meaning of Smith's term. They use it to suggest that the pursuit of self-interest in the economy will always (or almost always) result in group benefit, and that individuals should feel free to pursue it.

There are many problems with the invisible hand, even in principle. First, it is simply untrue that personal greed will always result in society's best interest: crime is a devastating counter-example. The very reason we have police and criminal justice systems is to prevent the harm caused to society by individuals seeking to enrich themselves at the expense of the group. As long as conservatives admit that traditional crimes like rape, murder and robbery legitimize a government response against them, then it's obvious that extreme positions on the invisible hand are indefensible.

Another line of argument in favor of the invisible hand is that it is the most efficient way to organize an economy. That is, a free market of self-interested individuals is better at producing general prosperity than a government practicing centralized control. This is true up to a point. Individuals are indeed the experts of their local situations, and can respond much more flexibly and quickly to changing demands than centralized government can. For government to micromanage every little aspect of the economy, the centralized planners would require the knowledge of God. This is the main argument against overly-centralized control.

Sedangkan menurut Answer.com : An economic principle, first postulated by Adam Smith, holding that the greatest benefit to a society is brought about by individuals acting freely in a competitive marketplace in the pursuit of their own self-interest.

Kalo menurut investorwords.com :
Term used by Adam Smith to describe the natural force that guides free market capitalism through competition for scarce resources. According to Adam Smith, in a free market each participant will try to maximize self-interest, and the interaction of market participants, leading to exchange of goods and services, enables each participant to be better of than when simply producing for himself/herself. He further said that in a free market, no regulation of any type would be needed to ensure that the mutually beneficial exchange of goods and services took place, since this "invisible hand" would guide market participants to trade in the most mutually beneficial manner.

Yang jelas si Invisible Hand ini bisa jadi musuh bersama karena telah berusaha mengambil keuntungan bagi diri atau kelompoknya sendiri dengan menyusahkan banyak orang.
Masa' harga cabe Rp 100.000,-?